Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The Dodgers and Padres have felt like the clear two best teams in the National League West for the majority of the season, and today they meet in the NL Division Series to decide which team is worthy of advancing. If you didn’t get a chance to look at Dustin’s post predicting the postseason roster from a couple days ago, there’s still time! He was pretty spot on, even nailing Edgardo Henriquez over Joe Kelly, with the only difference being Michael Grove over Ben Casparius. It turns out that due to Casparius being optioned on September 28, he wasn’t even eligible to return unless replacing someone who was injured.
Additionally, I previewed the series earlier this morning if you have time to check that out prior to first pitch. Almost anything you would be interested in reading about regarding these two teams is in there. This thread will be more of a look at the matchup between the two starters.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be on the mound in Game 1 after initially being announced as the Game 2 starter. The Dodgers will hope this series doesn’t go to a Game 5, but if it does, Yamamoto will be available on his regular amount of rest (five days) on October 11. Jack Flaherty would still be available in a potential Game 5 on regular rest after starting Game 2. Should they need either of them, Yamamoto starting the first game of this series provides the team with more options at the back end of the NLDS. Dylan Cease was one of the best starters in the National League this season and will be starting Game 1 for the Padres after not pitching in the Wild Card round against the Braves.
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| 5:38 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| DH | Arraez (L) | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| RF | Tatis Jr. | RF | Betts |
| LF | Profar (S) | 1B | Freeman (L) |
| 3B | Machado | LF | T. Hernández |
| CF | Merrill (L) | 3B | Muncy (L) |
| SS | Bogaerts | C | Smith |
| 2B | Cronenworth (L) | 2B | Lux (L) |
| 1B | Solano | CF | Edman (S) |
| C | Higashioka | SS | Rojas |
| P | Cease (R) | P | Yamamoto (R) |
Over the last two weeks, Shohei Ohtani has naturally been the best hitter on the Dodgers, with a 286 wRC+ and 1.416 OPS over 75 plate appearances. Teoscar Hernández is in great form with a 178 wRC+ and 1.015 OPS over 66 plate appearances, as are Andy Pages (1.030 OPS in 33 PA), and Kiké (.964 OPS in 39 PA). Miguel Rojas (144 wRC+, .845 OPS), Max Muncy (136 wRC+, .820 OPS), and Will Smith (134 wRC+, .837 OPS) have all been being the ball great as well, putting this lineup in a good spot to succeed. Freddie Freeman (121 wRC+, .786 OPS), and Gavin Lux (119 wRC+, .719 OPS) have also been good, with only two players actually struggling. Tommy Edman is slashing just .153/.261/.305 over his final 69 plate appearances, while Mookie Betts is slashing .197/.215/.344 in 65 plate appearances. Edman has a .159 BABIP while Mookie is at .182 over that stretch, so things should improve to an extent. Betts has been getting under everything recently, and I’m sure he’s been working to fix whatever has been causing that. Edman can be a mediocre bat towards the bottom of the lineup, but Mookie will need to be better.
Here’s how everyone on the NLDS roster has fared against Cease. Due to Cease being in the American League prior to this season, nobody has seen him all that often besides Ohtani and Kiké Hernández to an extent. He’s allowed four earned runs in two starts and 10.2 innings against the Dodgers this season with ten strikeouts to six walks.
| Player | PA | H | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 17 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | .267 | .353 | .733 | 1.086 |
| Mookie Betts | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .222 | .222 | .222 | .444 |
| Freddie Freeman | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .444 | .778 |
| T. Hernández | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .091 | .091 | .091 | .182 |
| Max Muncy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .733 |
| Will Smith | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | .111 | .273 | .111 | .384 |
| Gavin Lux | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .600 | .714 | .800 | .1514 |
| Tommy Edman | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .1000 | 1.500 |
| Miguel Rojas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .000 | .250 | .000 | .250 |
| Bench | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| K. Hernández | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .417 | .417 | .833 | 1.250 |
| Chris Taylor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .500 |
| Andy Pages | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Austin Barnes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .500 |
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Here’s how Cease and Yamamoto compared across the regular season.
Yamamoto has faced the Padres twice this season, the first coming on March 21 in Seoul, his MLB debut. It was also his worst outing of the year, allowing five earned runs on four hits and one walk over one inning. That was a weird series that also saw Yu Darvish, Michael King, and Joe Musgrove have some of their worst outings of the year. He was much better his second time facing them, coming April 12 in his fourth career start. He went five innings allowing three earned runs on four hits and a walk with six strikeouts. Overall in a limited sample size, Manny Machado has seen him well, as has Fernando Tatis Jr. and Elias Díaz (on the Rockies).
Outside of that very rough outing in Korea, Yamamoto has largely been excellent in his other 17 starts and 89.0 innings pitched. After that first outing, he has a 2.53 ERA, 2.58 FIP, and a 1.07 WHIP, with 103 strikeouts to just 21 walks. Everything indicates that he’s already a top-20 starter in baseball with good health. His last time out he allowed two runs on four hits over five innings with six strikeouts in Coors Field. He had some bad calls go against him early, leading to a run in the first inning, but settled in nicely after that. He allowed a solo home run in the bottom of the third, just his seventh homer allowed this season. He has a 3.38 ERA, and 2.29 FIP since returning from the Injured List on September 10, with 21 strikeouts to five walks in 16.0 innings. He threw 71 pitches his last time out, after 79 and 72 in his outings prior, so I don’t think it’s likely he’ll be out for 100 pitches at this point, especially with a fully rested bullpen. Hopefully he’s sharp and can provide five or more strong innings.
Cease is coming off a decent start against none other than the Dodgers in his 33rd and final regular season start. He allowed three runs on five hits and three walks over five innings with four strikeouts. He generated 20 whiffs, but was unable to turn that into strikeouts and ended up laboring a bit. If anything, the Dodgers left some runs out on the bases that could’ve scored easily. They scored one run in the first inning, but if a Will Smith fly-ball went five feet further it would’ve been a 3-0 start. Ohtani knocked in one run on a 117 MPH double off the right field wall that would’ve been a three run homer if he had hit if five feet higher. The Dodgers would be more than happy to have a repeat performance tonight.
Despite 224 strikeouts this season, he’s had a bit of an issue generating as many down the stretch. He had just four strikeouts in the start against the Dodgers, which was the fourth time in his last six starts that he failed to strikeout at least five batters. He was excellent in the middle part of the season, but has a 3.66 ERA over his final nine starts and 51.2 innings, with just 48 strikeouts to 22 walks. He’s struggled with walks at times, walking three or more batters in half of his final 14 starts.
He’s faced the Dodgers just four times in his career, and here’s how all those outings have gone.
| Date | IP | H | ER | BB | K | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 25, 2024 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| July 31, 2024 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| June 15, 2023 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| June 9, 2022 | 4.2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
As good as he is, the Dodgers have always seemed to find a way to make him work and prevent him from getting deep into the game. It’s hard to put up runs against him, but making him labor and getting to the bullpen quickly should be a priority.
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Maybe there is some magic in the air for this team. In all seriousness, you never want someone to go through any sort of injury, but it’s a bit funny that an injury had to happen to justify not putting him on the roster. It was an easy call in my eyes even if he were healthy, and the reasoning is he’s not good and very likely to be a liability. We’ve seen it before.
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I’ll have adjusted it in my lineup above by now, but if Muncy is at first and Kiké is in good form, things can be fine without Freeman, although it’s certainly not ideal.
Unfortunate for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers that he won’t be able to pitch again this season. These means that all of the three starters that were hopeful to pitch again in the postseason (Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, and Kershaw) will ultimately miss the postseason. Casparius, Justin Wrobleski, and potentially Tony Gonsolin are the remaining starters that could be available at some point.
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First pitch is at 5:38 PT on FS1.
