Yankees @ Dodgers – 2024 World Series Game 2: Dodgers look to take a 2-0 series lead behind Yamamoto

The Dodgers came out on top last night by a score of 6-3 in what was a fantastic and memorable game, and a great opening to the World Series. The two best teams in the game were deadlocked for most of the game, with neither team being able to do much against the opposing starting pitchers. Jack Flaherty ended up leaving a curveball a bit too high to Giancarlo Stanton who hit a sky scraping two-run homer. Gerrit Cole was slightly better, going six innings allowing one run on just four hits while not being helped out by his defense. The bullpen was mostly great after Flaherty left, going 4.2 innings allowing just one run. The run came off Blake Treinen, due to a single to Jazz Chisholm Jr. who proceeded to steal second and third. The pitching staff will be more cognizant of keeping baserunners in check now that it’s been exploited. Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the tenth inning. Chad’s recap of the game last night covered everything.

It was fantasic, and it was probably the best way the Dodgers could’ve opened the World Series. They won, got to see the entirety of New York’s bullpen, and learned a thing or two about their own weaknesses. The left-handed Carlos Rodon will be on the mound for the Yankees tonight, up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers haven’t had a 2-0 series lead since the 2020 NLDS, and this would be a good time to change that.

	5:08 P.M.		Los Angeles
2B	Torres	DH	Ohtani (L)
RF	Soto (L)	RF	Betts
CF	Judge	LF	T. Hernández
DH	Stanton	1B	Freeman (L)
3B	Chisholm (L)	CF	Edman (S)
1B	Rizzo (L)	2B	K. Hernández
SS	Volpe	3B	Muncy (L)
C	Wells (L)	C	Smith
LF	Verdugo (L)	SS	Rojas
P	Rodon (L)	P	Yamamoto (R)

The Dodgers led baseball with a 121 wRC+ and .795 OPS against left-handed pitching this year, so it’s as good as a matchup as you can have against a pitcher like Rodon. It starts with Tommy Edman, who had just a 98 wRC+ overall this season, but was a monster against lefties and has continued that into the postseason. Against lefties this postseason, Edman is 9-14 with a homer and three doubles after a 1.299 OPS against them in the regular season. He added two more hits last night raising his postseason average to .354, including a crucial single in the tenth inning that eventually got Freeman to the plate. Kiké Hernández and Teoscar Hernández each added a hit, while Freeman had the grand slam and a triple.

Andy Pages led the team with a 157 wRC+ against lefties, to go with a .917 OPS. However, he’s out of the lineup tonight. Teoscar Hernández had a 154 wRC+ and .931 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, followed by Shohei Ohtani (141 wRC+, .867 OPS), Mookie Betts (136, .852), and Will Smith (134, .872). Miguel Rojas will get his first start of the World Series after missing the entirety of the NLCS. He’s at short, with Kiké starting at second and Edman in center over Pages. It should help the defense, but they could miss Pages’ bat in the lineup.

Here’s how the offense has performed against Rodon over the course of their careers.

Mookie Betts hasn’t seen Rodon well at all despite it being a decent matchup for him, while Kiké has destroyed him.

The Yankees managed to get ten hits and four walks last night, but turned it into just three runs, largely in part to striking out 13 times. Aaron Judge came up in a big spot after the Dodgers walked Juan Soto to avoid facing him and Treinen forced a pop-up to get out of the jam. Gleyber Torres reached twice which is a recipe for disaster against this offense, so they’ll need to do a better job at keeping him off the bases. Soto had a hit and walked twice which is pretty on brand for him, kept him from doing any real damage although he did score on Stanton’s two-run homer. Chisholm reached twice and stole three bases in the game, so the Dodgers would benefit from keeping him off the bases, as well as being more aware of the running game.

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Here’s how Rodon and Yamamoto performed during the regular season.

Yamamoto’s postseason started with a stinker, giving up five runs in three innings against the Padres in Game 1 of the NLDS. He turned it around in Game 5 with five scoreless innings, sending the Dodgers to the NLCS. He made one start in the NLCS, coming in Game 4 where he went 4.1 innings with eight strikeouts, allowing two runs on four hits and one walk. The final line wasn’t as good as his five shutout innings against San Diego in Game 5 of the NLCS, but execution and stuff wise, I thought he looked better last time out. Everything was moving great, and when he could command everything he was dominant. He gave up a solo shot to Mark Vientos on a fastball down the middle, and the Yankees can easily do the same thing.

In that outing against the Mets, he threw 14 sliders, the most he’s thrown in a single game this season. He’s thrown the slider just over 3% of the time this season, with just 48 thrown over 90.0 regular season innings. Of the 14 sliders he threw, the Mets swung ten times, didn’t put a single one in play, coming up empty in half of the swings.

Brim wrote about Yamamoto prior to his NLCS Game 4 outing, another piece of reading you should do.

“Yamamoto’s slider grades out as his second-best pitch (behind the splitter) by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ and rates extremely well by Baseball Prospectus’ StuffPro as well. It resulted in one of the most memorable pitches of his (NLCS) Game 5 start.”

His start in New York back in June was his best outing of the season, going seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts and two hits allowed. He struck out Stanton twice, which would be nice to hold him down for a game as he’s been red hot. Yamamoto threw the slider 13 times in that outing, surpassed only by his last outing against the Mets.

The Yankees are strong everywhere offensively when led by Judge and Soto, but as a whole they were weaker against right-handed sliders, ranking seventh in wOBA (.294). They were also ninth against right-handed splitters at .271, and 18th against curves at .280. We’ll see what Yamamoto ends up doing, as he has the arsenal to theoretically pitch away from New York’s offensive strength. Flaherty’s fastball usage was down moderately last night, with an increase in curveball and slider usage.

Dustin wrote about the method to attacking Yankees offense, and what that could entail in terms of pitch usage.

“If the Dodgers are going to have any hope of neutralizing the Yankees’ hitters, they’re going to have to do it with non-4-seam fastballs….They’ll also need the changeup/splitter category (offspeed) to make a strong appearance, as that’s the type of pitch the Yankees have struggled most against this postseason: .115/.233/.135, .186 wOBA.”

For the Yankees this postseason, they’ve more or less gotten the version of Rodon they signed up for when agreeing to a six-year $162 million deal in 2022. He was coming off two consecutive elite seasons, but struggled mightily in 2023 due to a couple of injuries. He was much better this season, and while not his elite self of old, still very solid for them.

He’s been good this postseason, with a 4.40 ERA over 14.1 innings pitched and three starts. He gave up four runs over 3.2 innings pitched in ALDS Game 2 against the Royals, but has given up just three runs over his last 10.2 innings pitched. He made two starts in the ALCS against Cleveland, going 6.0 innings with one earned run on three hits, no walks, and with nine strikeouts in Game 1. He then also pitched in Game 5, going 4.2 innings allowing two earned runs on five hits, one walk, and with six strikeouts. Overall, all the underlying numbers love his performance this October more than his 4.40 ERA, which is decent. The Yankees have won two of his three starts, which is the most important part. He has a 2.12 FIP and 1.12 WHIP, with 22 strikeouts to just one walk, resulting in a 37.3% strikeout rate and just a 1.7% walk rate.

He has a five-pitch mix, but with two pitches making up nearly 80% of his arsenal. He starts with an upper-90’s four-seam fastball that he throws half the time, paired with his mid-80’s slider that he throws over a quarter of the time. He has a mid-80’s changeup that he has thrown 13% of the time, but only to right-handed batters (400 of 400). He also has a curveball and the rare cutter that he also only throws to right-handed batters. RHB will see up to five pitches, while LHB will likely see only two.

He was better against lefties this year to no real surprise, as an upper-90’s fastball with a tough slider to go along with it is quite the challenge. His .224/.281/.352 slash allowed against LHB was solid, but right-handed batters were able to get to him a bit, putting up a .763 OPS. He gave up 28 home runs against right-handed batters (601 batters faced), compared to three against lefties in 135 plate appearances. Lefties have still been able to string hits together and take their walks, but haven’t been able to slug against him. He had a 2.91 ERA in the second half and picked the right time to get hot. Hopefully the Dodgers are ready.

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Pitching matchups have basically been set for the next two games. Walker Buehler will start Monday in New York, which basically ensures a bullpen game in Game 4. The Yankees will counter with Clarke Schmidt on Monday and Luis Gil on Tuesday.

Yankees will start Clarke Schmidt in Game 3 and Luis Gil in Game 4

— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) October 26, 2024

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First pitch is at 5:08 PT on FOX.