Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
I took a break from this last year as I was not really feeling baseball after the unceremonious bouncing from the NLDS by the Diamondbacks, but we back.
It’d be easy just to say, “bring everyone back,” from the World Series-winning squad, but that’s not fully realistic. However, there will be some guys coming back in this plan, and they all make sense for one reason or another.
Before we get fully into it, let me burst your bubble: Juan Soto is not in this plan. Not because he isn’t good enough, but I just don’t see it happening, even if it’s something I’d try to make happen if I were in the position (#notmymoney).
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Arbitration
RHP Tony Gonsolin (Arb3, $5.4 million)
RHP Dustin May (Arb3, $2.135 million)
RHP Michael Kopech (Arb3, $5.2 million)
RHP Brusdar Graterol (Arb 3, $2.7 million)
RHP Evan Phillips (Arb 3, $6.2 million)
IF Gavin Lux (Arb 2, $2.7 million)
LHP Alex Vesia (Arb 2, $1.9 million)
LHP Anthony Banda (Arb 1, $1.1 million)
Because I know you’re on pins and needles: right-hander Connor Brogdon, who was projected to make $800,000 in his first year of arbitration, has already been outrighted off the 40-man roster and elected free agency. However, not everyone tendered a deal will make it through the end of this post as a Dodger.
Qualifying Offers
The qualifying offer is worth $21.05 million this year, so extending the QO to Hernandez was a no-brainer. I probably would have given it to Walker Buehler as well, but it seems both sides are interested in working out a deal, which you’ll see below.
Option
C Austin Barnes – $3.5 million team option
LHP Clayton Kershaw – $10 million player option + performance bonuses
SS Miguel Rojas – $5 million team option or $1 million buyout
No big surprises here. Barnes and Rojas have already exercised their options. Kershaw officially declined his option, but he’ll work out a deal with the Dodgers. He has already said he’ll be back in 2025 and he’ll be a “Dodger for life!,” a verbally binding contract in the state of California. Sorry (not sorry), Rangers.
Rule 5 Draft Protections
LHP Jack Dreyer
Bruce’s Rule 5 Draft preview has more intel, and the Dodgers on Tuesday added the lefty Dreyer to the 40-man roster. No one else was protected.
Free Agents
SS Willy Adames – 6 years, $161 million
RHP Walker Buehler – 2 years, $33 million
UTIL Enrique Hernandez – 1 year, $4 million + $4 million 2026 option ($500,000 buyout)
OF Teoscar Hernandez – 3 years, $67 million
RHP Roki Sasaki – $2.5 million signing bonus, MLB minimum
RHP Michael Soroka – 2 years, $14 million
RHP Blake Treinen – 2 years, $22 million
For free agents, I used The Athletic, ESPN, FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors (when applicable) to get to the term and dollars. For example, Adames was projected at the following:
- The Athletic: 6 years, $150 million
- ESPN: 7 years, $189 million
- FanGraphs: 5 years, $145 million
- MLBTR: 6 years, $160 million
Add ’em up, divide by four and you get 6 years, $161million — $28.333 million annual average value.
Adames seems like one of the most logical free-agent targets for the Dodgers. They limped through a majority of the season with Mookie Betts and Rojas handling a majority of the workload. Tommy Edman‘s addition helped stabilized shortstop a bit — especially in the postseason. The thing is, none of them are full-time shortstops. Betts is going to play second base from here on out, Rojas is a good bench guy who probably gets exposed (offensively) if he starts too much. Edman is more valuable as a utility guy, as he’ll likely get a lot of looks in center field against left-handed pitching.
This is why Adames — a premium shortstop — makes the most sense. The Dodgers don’t have anyone in the high minors ready to take over, while the Lux experiment never took off (and I was always skeptical about it). Corey Seager‘s steady presence at short has been missed, but the stability he brought has been even more missed. Adames, 29, had always been an above-average defender at shortstop, according to defensive runs saved. For whatever reason, in 2024, he took a big step back. He was -16 DRS — worst among qualified shortstops. If you look at outs above average, he was still not great (0 OAA), but he’s one year removed from being 16 OAA. It’s hard to put too much stock into defensive metrics, but especially 1-year metrics. It stands to reason Adames won’t be a +15 DRS or OAA guy as he heads into his 30s, but he should be plenty fine for the Dodgers, who made Seager an average defender at short thanks to advanced scouting and positioning. Of course, you’re also buying Adames’ bat.
He’s coming off his best offensive season that saw him hit .251/.331/.462 with 32 home runs and a 119 wRC+. He’s definitely a power over contact hitter, as his Whiff% is in the 20th percentile, but his Barrel% is in the 81st. His Launch Angle/Sweet Spot% is in the 84th percentile. The signs of a real offensive outbreak are there, not that the Dodgers really need him to be much better than he has been in his career, considering the rest of the roster. More than anything, he would help bring some stability to the position for the next 3-4 years before he might either have to move to third base (Max Muncy won’t play forever!) to make room for Alex Freeland, Kellon Lindsey or Emil Morales.
Buehler’s resurgence/reinvention in the postseason showed he could still be that guy. Health will be a big factor, but a low-risk 2-year deal could make a lot of sense for him. He could attempt to bounce back and cash in in a couple winters. A lot will depend on how he finishes and executes his reinvention, but we’ve seen what kind of competitor he is, and that’s something the Dodgers need on the roster.
Kiké coming back just makes too much sense. He brings more value than just what he does on the field (yes, even in October). He’s a guy who keeps the clubhouse loose and showed up big late in the season. He can play multiple positions, and we know the Dodgers value that.
Teo could probably be back at a cheaper rate than I have above there, as it seems he really wants to stay with the Dodgers. And you know what? They need a corner outfielder, especially with Betts move to the dirt. Short of going full-villain and signing Soto, Hernandez is the next-best option.
Sasaki will be the biggest non-Soto prize of free agency. I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on the fireballer, so I’ll just refer you to Daniel’s extensive post on him. Suffice to say, he has a chance to be the ace of this staff, which is saying something considering the names the Dodgers have who can throw the ball.
Soroka is a sneaky bullpen acquisition who, despite going 0-10 last season, has some appeal to teams like the Dodgers. He thrived in a reliever role with the White Sox last season, a role that saw him triple his strikeout rate. He’s quite injury prone, even moreso than the standard “pitchers break,” trope, but increased fastball velocity, decreased sinker usage and increased slider effectiveness leads some to believe a breakout could be in his future.
Treinen was a postseason hero for the Dodgers and it’s kinda hard to see him going elsewhere. He might be worth more than his projected deal above, but he is going into his age-37 season and Father Time is undefeated.
Trades
To CWS: RHP Bobby Miller, C Dalton Rushing, IF Oswaldo Osorio, SS Joendry Vargas
To LA: LHP Garrett Crochet
It’s a steep price to pay, but before the White Sox started limiting Crochet’s outings in the second half, he was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Despite that, the 25-year-old Crochet still ended up with a 3.58 ERA, 2.69 FIP and a sparkling 29.6 K-BB%. He provides the type of high upside in the rotation a guy like Blake Snell would, except he comes at an extreme financial discount. He’s under team control for two more seasons and is projected to earn just $2.9 million in his second year of arbitration. He could also benefit from the impending 6-man rotation, as the southpaw threw a career-high 146 innings in 2024 after throwing 25 innings total between the minors and majors in 2023.
To get Crochet, the Dodgers would have to give up a lot. They’d be giving up the current No. 1 system prospect in Rushing, a former No. 1 system prospect in Miller and their top international signing from the 2023 period in Vargas. It’s not lost on me that this would be the second time in four months they traded a Vargas to the White Sox (love you, Miguel). The White Sox would also get a low-level lottery ticket in Osorio. Their aim is to improve the offense in any trade, and landing two of the Dodgers’ best hitting prospects could go a long way in helping that.
To StL: RHP Payton Martin, RHP Dustin May
To LA: 2B/3B Nolan Gorman
A couple years ago, I’d be thrown off the Internet for proposing such a deal by both teams’ fanbases. Now, May’s status heading into his final year is “please don’t break,” while Martin couldn’t build on his strong professional debut. May is in his final year of arbitration before free agency, while Martin is still just 20 years old.
Of course, that means the player coming back isn’t going to knock your socks off, and Gorman doesn’t, really. Sure, he has a career .735 OPS and 104 wRC+, but he fell off quite a bit in 2024. He hit just .203/.271/.400 with an 87 wRC+ and an ugly 37.6 K%. However, there are some things to like and be encouraged about. He hits the ball relatively hard — 89.7 MPH average exit velocity for his career — and, when he does hit the ball, he has a career 43.8 HardHit%. For reference, Shohei Ohtani led the Dodgers in HardHit% this past season at 44.3.
It’s hard not to see “the next Max Muncy” when looking at Gorman, but he’s not nearly as disciplined a hitter as our favorite rectangular man. He can draw walks, but it’s almost negated by his career 34.1 K%. That’s James Outman territory. The good thing is, he’s under team control through the 2028 season and the Dodgers’ hitting instructors could try to unlock some of the lost potential in Gorman’s bat.
To MIA: 2B Gavin Lux, RHP Michael Grove
To LA: RHP Anthony Bender, IF/OF Jacob Berry
With Betts’ impending move to second base, Lux could very well be on his way out in LA. With Miami, he finds a landing spot that should see him get extending playing time, as he just has to beat out Otto Lopez for the 2B job. He has been about league-average in his career so far, and he came back from a severe knee injury to have his moments in 2024. Grove is more of a roster-shedding throw-in at this point as he doesn’t have much of a future in LA’s bullpen.
Bender is reminiscent of Treinen, but he’s a tier below. A possibility here is trying to mold Bender to be a younger version of Treinen. At least, that’d be the route I’d take with him. He’ll be 30 before next season, but his sweeper/sinker mix is similar to Treinen’s. Bender’s average spin rate is higher (2,698 vs. 2,548), but the results are in the next tier of effectiveness when compared to Treinen’s.
| Player | xBA | xOBP | xSLG | xwOBA |
| Bender | .162 | .213 | .246 | .206 |
| Treinen | .142 | .175 | .190 | .166 |
It’s hard to fully replicate Treinen’s success with the sweeper, but Bender has a chance to get there with proper instruction/tutelage.
Because Bender’s sweeper is closer to a traditional slider, I’m wondering if the Dodgers would try to convert it to a cutter, ala Treinen, to use primarily against left-handed hitters. In turn, they might have Bender attempt to make his sweeper more like Treinen’s so there’s some separation in the pitches. They’d be taking one really good pitch and turning it into two really good pitches, if everything goes correctly. Granted, it’d be hard to fully recreate it, but Mark Prior and Co., have worked miracles before. Plus, with the different release points (nearly a foot lower both horizontally and vertically), it’d give opposing hitters a slightly different look to keep them from seeing the same kind of pitcher too frequently.
Berry was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft and he hasn’t exactly panned out as the Marlins expected. He doesn’t have a primary position, but has experience at first-, second- and third base, as well as right field. He doesn’t need to be on the 40-man roster until next year, so perhaps the Dodgers could try to work their magic with him. If not, he’s a close-to-the-majors switch-hitter who has positional flexibility.
To CHC: RHP Ryan Brasier
To LA: OF Brennen Davis
In the last of the trades, the Dodgers clear out another lower-strikeout bullpen arm in Brasier and take a chance on a former top prospect in Davis. Bender, essentially, replaces Brasier, who’s in the final year of a 2-year, $9 million deal he signed last offseason. He would help to give the Cubs a solid middle reliever, as they have a couple of back-end guys who are really interesting, so Brasier would help bring some consistency to the middle relief corp.
Davis, 25, was ranked as high as the 15th-best prospect in the game by MLB Pipeline before the 2022 season (16th by Baseball America), but the wheels have come off a bit since then. He has dealt with injuries — 350 plate appearances in 2021 is his career-high — and hasn’t hit much overall (.238/.350/.416, with most of that being inflated by 2019 and 2021 numbers). He’s a corner outfielder with some pop, but needs a lot of work. He has one minor-league option remaining, so maybe some time in OKC could help turn his career around.
26-Man Roster
Catchers (2)
Austin Barnes
Will Smith
Infielders (5)
Willy Adames
Mookie Betts
Freddie Freeman
Max Muncy
Miguel Rojas
Outfielders (2)
Teoscar Hernandez
Andy Pages
Infielders/Outfielders (3)
Tommy Edman
Enrique Hernandez
Chris Taylor
Two-way player (1)
Shohei Ohtani
Rotation (5)
Walker Buehler
Garrett Crochet
Tyler Glasnow
Roki Sasaki
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Bullpen (8)
Anthony Banda
Anthony Bender
Tony Gonsolin
Michael Kopech
Evan Phillips
Michael Soroka
Blake Treinen
Alex Vesia
40-Man Roster (11)
Diego Cartaya
Ben Casparius
Brennen Davis
Jack Dreyer
Nolan Gorman
Hunter Feduccia
Nick Frasso
Edgardo Henriquez
Landon Knack
James Outman
Justin Wrobleski
Injured (6)
Brusdar Graterol
Kyle Hurt
Clayton Kershaw
River Ryan*
Emmet Sheehan
Gavin Stone*
*- Out for entire 2025 season
Restricted List (1)
Andrew Toles
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There’s still depth in this roster, as well as having some legitimate studs. This doesn’t even include Freeland, who should be an easy addition this time next year. And the bullpen arms look promising. With Kopech a free agent after the season, guys like Frasso and Henriquez could step in to take that potentially vacated spot. Oh, and let’s take a look a the Oklahoma City Comets (new name) starting rotation:
- Casparius
- Knack
- Wrobleski
- Frasso
That also doesn’t include left-hander Jackson Ferris, who should be make it to Triple-A at some point in 2025. Also, Hurt and Sheehan should see some time with the Comets in 2025.
Speaking of rotations, the Dodgers are expected to go to a 6-man starting rotation for 2025. That should benefit almost everyone in terms of keeping them healthier throughout the season, while allowing some guys to recover from injuries and figure some things out in the minors. There may not be a 150-inning starter on this roster, but you’re gonna get 125-130 innings of more quality from more guys. Perhaps this is the solution to keeping guys healthy so they can contribute in October. Ohtani will pitch for the Dodgers in 2025 to round out the 6-man rotation (plus all the other options in the minors). Gonsolin is set to play the role of 2018 Ross Stripling for the 2025 campaign.
The lineup remains deep with different types of hitters, power-hitters, positional flexibility and some speed. That’s about all you can ask for, and (mostly) the same bats showed up to help carry the 2024 Dodgers to a World Series title. The only weakness might be relying on Pages to be more of a full-time player. If Outman has figured some things out, he could supplant Pages based on the fact he hits from the left side of the plate and is a premium defender in center field.
Let me know what you think in the comments and/or on Twitter, BlueSky or Discord.
