Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
In Shohei Ohtani‘s first two seasons as a Dodger, he was an offensive dynamo. He did things that have never been done by anyone in the long history of this franchise. So, when he got off to a bit of a slow start with the bat, it was unexpected.
Through May 15, Ohtani had a .240/.370/.429 batting line. Now, a .799 is nothing to sneeze at — the MLB average this season is .712 — but it wasn’t the expectation Ohtani had set. His OPS through his first two Dodger seasons was 1.025. Since May 15, though, Ohtani has almost looked like his old self. He’s hitting .423/.511/.705 with 12 of his 33 hits going for extra bases. The home run power we’ve come to expect from Ohtani hasn’t fully materialized.
I pondered in March how his pitching would impact his bat.
“It would be unrealistic to expect Ohtani to continue to hit at the all-world level he has the last three seasons while also pitching well enough to be the best pitcher in the NL, if not all of baseball. But if anyone can do it, it’s him, and over the course of his career he hasn’t seen a fall-off in the box.”
While his batting line on the season is impressive, the homers are lacking. He has just 11 through the first 2-plus months of the season. Through June 8, 2025, Ohtani had 23 home runs and a .293/.388/.633 batting line. This season, he’s up to. 302/.417/.522 with those 11 homers. The shift has been more of an on-base focused approach rather than a power-hitting approach — for whatever reason. His .417 OBP leads the National League and is exactly what you want out of a leadoff hitter. It’s the pedestrian .522 slugging (said with tongue slightly implanted in cheek) that’s almost staggering to see.
Let’s see how his batted-ball data has changed from his first two years as a Dodger to this season.
| Year | EV (MPH) | LA (deg) | Distance | HardHit% |
| 2024 | 95.8 | 16 | 174 | 60.4 |
| 2025 | 94.9 | 15 | 169 | 58.7 |
| 2026 | 93.5 | 13 | 165 | 52.0 |
If you want to be technical about it, Ohtani’s batted ball numbers are trending in the wrong direction. However, the exit velocity and HardHit% are still 96th and 94th percentile across MLB — down from 99th and 100th in 2025 and 100th in both in 2024.
If he stays on this current trajectory, his .220 isolated slugging would be below .300 for the first time since 2022 (.246). Anything .200 or higher is considered “great” by FanGraphs, so perhaps we’ve just been really, really spoiled by the greatest baseball player to ever play.
The offensive “regression” would be any level of concerning he currently wasn’t pitching the best he ever has. His 0.74 ERA is the best in baseball by .75 points (minimum 60 innings pitched). His 2.42 FIP would be fourth-best and his 21.0 K-BB% would be 11th best. He’s a legitimate Cy Young contender while still posting a .900-plus OPS. This is not normal, and we are witnessing things that have never been done before.
So, if Ohtani’s bat takes a slight step back, but it’s accompanied by Cy Young-caliber pitching, the over net value is in the positive. Through June 8 last year, Ohtani had a 3.1 WAR with his bat and he had yet to contribute on the mound. This season, he has a 2.4 WAR at the plate and 2.2 on the mound, good for 4.6. Bobby Witt Jr. and Cristopher Sanchez lead MLB in WAR among position players and pitchers — both at 3.8. Ohtani’s combined WAR is almost a full win higher. Unicorn.
——-
It may appear on the surface that Ohtani’s 2026 campaign has been a slight disappointment, since he set the bar so high in the last two seasons. But he also wasn’t contributing as much on the mound as he is now. Yes, he had 47 innings leading up to the postseason in 2025, but he also saw his batting line shift a bit, as he was more power focused rather than on-base focused.
It’s clear his pitching has impacted his hitting a bit. But instead of him regressing hard, his offensive focus has shifted slightly. He’s now getting on base at a higher clip than he ever has, but that has also come at the expense of some power. Factor in the pitching and this is the version of Ohtani we currently have — and it might be the best version yet.
