Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
The 2023 free agent market has a long list of interesting pitchers, and the Dodgers have a desperate need for more pitching. While there are several top-tier options in MLB free agency, the market of pitchers available from Japan also will be more active than it has been in recent memory. What follows is a breakdown of four options who pitched in NPB last season who are expected to be available, all of whom Dodgers scouts would have seen in person.
Before getting started, there is one thing worth noting: it was impossible to hit the ball in Japan this year. 2023’s pitching numbers were inflated as a result. The NPB-average OPS in 2023 was .666 (MLB’s average OPS in 2023 was .734); the average ERA was 3.17. While the league remains a higher-contact affair than MLB, batters only managed to hit a home run once in every 51 plate appearances, 40% lower than the MLB rate. The power disparity is especially worth noting, as holes in a pitcher’s arsenal which could lead to home run problems were not frequently found in NPB.
With that out of the way, let’s start this breakdown with the pitcher who will shatter the record for the largest contract given to a player who has never played in MLB.
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Yamamoto just completed his seventh season with the Buffaloes of the Pacific League, and he is the player most responsible for elevating the team from perennial underperformer to capturing three consecutive pennants. In those three seasons, Yamamoto won the Eiji Sawamura Award (annually awarded to Japan’s best pitcher) all three times, and he is expected to win his third consecutive Pacific League MVP award as well. He has nothing left to prove in Japan, and the Buffaloes will reward these performances by posting him this offseason at the youngest age (25) not hindered by international signing caps.
Yamamoto’s previous three seasons are when he made his mark as Japan’s best pitcher (following the departure of Shohei Ohtani and the aging of Tomoyuki Sugano). Over those years, he has posted ERAs of 1.39, 1.68, and 1.21 while averaging 180 regular season innings. He struck out over 26% of the batters he faced in the contact-oriented league in all three seasons and set a career-best 4.4% walk rate in 2023. Yamamoto allowed just two home runs over the course of this year’s regular season, though as discussed previously that comes with caveats due to the league’s run environment.
According to Japanese baseball data tracking site DeltaGraphs, Yamamoto threw five pitch types in 2023. He leads with his four-seam fastball, which averaged 95mph and was thrown about 40% of the time. The pitch has a significant amount of rise due to his high-three-quarters arm slot, and plays up due to Yamamoto’s high extension towards the plate. The pitch will lack the same plane as similar rising fastballs in MLB due to his height (5’10”), but the extension and velocity (he touched 99mph this season) should make up for that to some degree. In NPB batters have had a very difficult time lifting the ball against him – Yamamoto consistently posts ground ball rates above 50% and has led the league in GB/FB ratio multiple times – and if that trend continues in MLB that will help ease home run concerns. He is also elite at fielding his position on those grounders, this year adding a Fielding Bible Award to his extremely long list of accolades.
Yamamoto’s primary out pitch is a splitter, which averaged nearly 90mph in 2023 and was thrown just over 1/4 of the time. Yamamoto’s other out pitch is an overhand curveball which averaged 76.7mph. The pitch has nearly 12-6 break and has a large amount of velocity separation from his fastball, which keeps batters off-balance. The curveball features an extremely unusual grip and release, more akin to throwing a yo-yo than a baseball:
Slow look at Yamamoto's curveball release pic.twitter.com/zF8pWDyko5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 4, 2021
If that weird release makes the batter more likely to pick the ball up out of his hand, it hasn’t shown up in games to this point.
Yamamoto is known to throw any of his three primary pitches in any count, and as such his ability to miss bats does not fade later in games. His arsenal is completed by a sinker and cutter, which he uses less than 10% each.
Yamamoto’s delivery is unconventional due to his long stride and short arm action, but he repeats it well. He has been extremely durable over his three year run at the top of the league, which does not include any time missed for arm issues. In fact, the one concern that some who cover him in NPB have had is how many miles are on his arm at such a young age and how the Buffaloes have used him as their ace.
NPB starters throw once per week, as opposed to the five-to-six day schedule in MLB, and as a result they are expected to shoulder a larger load of the innings. Even within these expectations, Yamamoto’s pitch counts have stood out. Here are his pitch loads per game over the last three regular seasons (which excludes his 138 pitch complete game in the Japan Series last week):
| Year | Total Starts | 100+ Pitches | 110+ | 120+ |
| 2021 | 26 | 25 | 14 | 8 |
| 2022 | 26 | 24 | 18 | 6 |
| 2023 | 23 | 19 | 10 | 1 |
It’s hard to say what these numbers mean other than whichever team signs him will be taking on the requisite amount of risk from a very long pitching contract, which Yamamoto is positioned to receive due to his age. Yamamoto is one year younger than James Outman, the Dodgers’ best rookie from last season. He’s younger than Michael Busch, one of their top prospects. Yet, despite this, he will be available to sign by any team after he has posted an extended run as the top pitcher in Japan. This combination of track record, durability, stuff, and polish has not been available at this age in the posting system since Masahiro Tanaka, and Yamamoto has a valid statistical case for being considered even better. He is going to get at least seven years, and it would not be surprising to see him get more than that and break the $200M mark. On top of that, whichever team signs him will also have to pay a posting fee in excess of $30M to the Buffaloes.
Due to the Dodgers’ pitching deficiencies, they will need to sign a big free agent pitcher this offseason. Yamamoto is the best pitcher available due to the combination of his age and upside. There are big risks, but there are with the other available arms as well. A team with the Dodgers’ nearly-unlimited resources can absorb said risks better than the rest of the league, even if they sign Ohtani. Yamamoto is the type of pitcher who you want in your rotation for years to come.
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Southpaw Shota Imanaga is the next-best pitcher available from Japan, and he has already been connected to the Dodgers, so he’s worth looking at in more depth. Imanaga is not the same caliber of pitcher as Yamamoto, and he’s five years older than him as well (in terms of his overall stature in Japan, he’s a more consistently healthy pitcher than Kodai Senga but without the same upside). However, Imanaga does one thing better than Yamamoto: he is really, really good at spinning a fastball.
Imanaga started the WBC’s final game against the US in March, and since the game took place in the Marlins’ home stadium, we know some information about his spin rates. The 15 four-seam fastballs Imanaga threw in that start averaged 2555 RPM, and among the 255 pitchers who threw at least 1000 four-seamers in MLB last season, that would have ranked 9th. The data are not fully comparable since the WBC uses a different ball than MLB, though most MLB pitchers who threw in that game had spin numbers which were relatively close to their normal rates when accounting for velocity changes. Imanaga’s four-seamer averaged 93.5 in the WBC final and 91.7 during the NPB regular season, so his actual spin number would likely be less than what he showed in March, but not it will not decrease beyond a value which would be considered near-elite for a starting pitcher.
Imanaga has posted seasons which have consistently put him among the second tier of pitchers in Japan, including a 2.80 ERA campaign this season. He posted career-best strikeout (29.2%) and walk (4.0%) rates in 2023, so his availability is well-timed for him. One potential concern is that Imanaga frequently works up in the strike zone (as his fastball spin would indicate), and thus allows a lot of fly balls. Imanaga posted a 0.62 GB/FB ratio in 2023, the lowest among qualified starting pitchers in Japan by a wide margin. This raises some questions about his ability to keep the ball in the park when leaving the dead-ball environment of 2023 NPB, though those worries are partially offset by the fact that his home stadium in Yokohama is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in professional baseball.
Imanaga works out of a slightly lower arm slot than Yamamoto, more of a traditional 3/4 angle in a much more conventional delivery. His fastball is his best pitch by a large margin, though he does have two usable out pitches in a sweeping slider and a changeup. He also features a fun looping curveball that averages just over 70mph as well as a seldom-used cutter and two-seamer.
The reported Dodger interest makes a lot of sense here, as they are known to absolutely love pitchers with high amounts of fastball carry, and Imanaga is one of the best in the world at spinning a fastball. It’s very Dodgers to try to find 60% of the pitcher as Yamamoto for something like 40% of the guarantee. The stuff profile also means he’d probably have a soft landing in the bullpen if starting doesn’t work out. That being said, Yamamoto would fill their immediate starting pitching needs in a much more satisfactory way.
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Matsui’s potential move to MLB is unique among those covered in this article in that he is a true free agent, and therefore will not require a posting fee to sign. He is also unique in that he is a reliever, not a starting pitcher.
Matsui, a 27-year-old lefty, just finished his ninth season for the Eagles (he saved a game I went to in Sendai in 2016 – he’s been around for a long time). He broke into the league in 2014 when he was teammates with notable names such as Takashi Saito and Andruw Jones (in recent years, he has been managed by Kazuhisa Ishii). While he was drafted as a starter out of high school, he struggled to throw strikes and very quickly made his mark in the bullpen instead. In his sophomore season at the age of 19, he had an incredible breakout, striking out 106 batters and walking 28 in 72-1/3 innings pitched while posting a staggering 0.87 ERA.
Over the next few seasons, Matsui struggled to consistently find the form he showed before his 20th birthday, alternating mediocre seasons with stellar ones. The big mark against him was his tendency to lose feel for the strike zone; Matsui has only walked fewer than 9% of the batters he’s faced twice, once in 2017 and again this year (a career-best 5.9%). Part of this inconsistency was due to several attempted moves back to the starting rotation, one which Matsui’s body type (currently listed at a somewhat generous 5’8”, 167lbs) was not suited for. However, in his final three NPB seasons, Matsui has shed many of the worries about his ability to consistently tap into his talent, posting ERAs of 0.63, 1.92, and 1.57 while striking more than 32% of the batters he’s faced in each season.
Matsui has shown an elite ability to miss bats in NPB, a league where it’s generally very hard to do so. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings this season, Matsui was second in chase rate (one spot better than phenom Roki Sasaki) and had the second-lowest contact rate when said pitches were chased (only behind Sasaki) according to DeltaGraphs. He misses those bats at that elite rate despite not having elite arm speed; his average fastball velocity in 2023 was a career-high 92.5mph though he touches the upper 90s at times.
Matsui achieves these results largely with his four-seam fastball, which plays much faster than the pure velocity due to high extension on his delivery (the textbook definition of high-effort), deception, and a high spin rate relative to the velocity. He also hides his pitches extremely well. While Matsui’s absence from the WBC finals (more on this later) deprived us of publicly-available spin data, scouts have been noting the fastball’s deceptive nature for years. Matsui fills out his arsenal with a slider and splitter — both of which profile as potential plus offerings — and a show-me curveball which he occasionally uses to steal strikes.
Matsui has elite closer upside in MLB, but his profile comes with a long list of concerns. The command is the biggest, along with the idea that he likely benefits a lot from NPB’s current run environment. It is more likely that his fastball plays down in MLB relative to Imanaga’s, but despite being in relief he will still need to throw enough of them to establish something at the top of the zone. The walks plus home run potential is worrying, and it’s one he’ll have to prove with game action more than his profile might otherwise indicate.
Additionally, some teams may pause due to why Matsui missed the WBC: his inability to adjust to the ball. He struggled heavily in exhibitions and was dropped from the roster. The WBC ball was slightly larger than the NPB version and was compounded more similarly to the MLB ball, which can occasionally cause issues for slider-heavy pitchers like Matsui. This isn’t always the case (the Dodgers don’t need to look further than Kenta Maeda for proof), but obviously a smoother transition and a look at him in bigger game action would have helped ease some concerns.
It has been reported that Matsui has a four-year, $13.2M offer on the table to remain with the Eagles. He is not likely to exceed that contract length if he moves to MLB, but he could beat that guarantee over two or three years. There are numerous questions surrounding his profile, but Matsui has high upside, making the risk of that guarantee relatively palatable.
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One other pitcher is expected to be posted this offseason, though he is a lesser-known name to both fans and scouts: Naoyuki Uwasawa. The 29-year old righty has been a fixture in the Fighters’ rotation since 2014, quietly posting league average or better ERAs more often than not.
Uwasawa is the type of pitcher who would throw the kitchen sink from the mound if he was allowed to. According to the pitch tracking at DeltaGraphs, he used seven pitches last season, led by a four-seam fastball which averages about 92 and is thrown 40% of the time. Beyond that, he throws a sinker, cutter, change, splitter, change, and slider, with none of the secondary pitches being thrown more than 14% of the time.
The main concern with Uwasawa is his approach. In 2023, he struck out just 17% of the batters he faced, and his career rate over his nine seasons in NPB is a tick under 20%. On top of that, he does not pair this with a superlatively low walk rate, meaning he heavily relies on poor contact quality and sequencing to get results. Throwing every pitch imaginable to contact works in NPB and worked especially well in the dead-ball year of 2023, but it’s a recipe that is not guaranteed to move leagues well.
Overall, Uwasawa is more of a lottery ticket than a sure thing. If he gets an MLB deal (which is not certain), it seems unlikely that it will be with a contender. The Dodgers already have a depth chart full of starting pitcher lottery tickets, and adding another to the mix doesn’t make a lot of sense.
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What about Roki Sasaki?
Even with the posting market as active as it is this offseason, and even though arguably the best pitcher ever to be posted is included, the name everybody wants to know more about will not be moving to MLB with them: Roki Sasaki will not be posted this offseason. The Dodgers, along with every other team with eyes, are said to love Sasaki, so much so that the LA Times recently wrote about some logic pretzels that the Dodgers may twist themselves into in order to pass on Yamamoto because Sasaki may be waiting in the future.
This would be incredibly foolish if it turns out to be true. One theory in the article is that Sasaki may be posted before he’s 25, and would therefore represent a substantial cost savings as he would not require to be paid fairly because his bonus would be governed by the international free agent cap. This was the path which Shohei Ohtani took six years ago. However, this seems unlikely to happen, as Sasaki would be costing himself hundreds of millions of dollars and his team, the Marines, would be costing themselves tens of millions of dollars.
Even if Sasaki was posted before turning 25, which again is unlikely, the Dodgers would not have as much control over their situation as they do now with Yamamoto. If they bid the most money for Yamamoto, they’ll probably sign him. If Sasaki is subject to international bonus caps, the Dodgers would be in line with many other bidders, like they were with Ohtani. They shouldn’t need to be reminded how that turned out.
Sasaki has the best raw stuff in the world right now, but he doesn’t offer the same complete package that Yamamoto has currently. They’d share youth and upside, but Sasaki does not have Yamamoto’s polish or his durability, and it’s not a given that he will if or when he’s posted. It’s a part of the Dodger front office’s job to dream about acquiring him, but they need to compete in 2024 first. Yamamoto would be the second-biggest step they could take this offseason towards making the 2024 team better, though Imanaga and Matsui would also be helpful in smaller ways.
