Dodgers hitters found their fastball timing and the offense rebounded late once again

The Dodger offense came under heavy scrutiny in July and August of this year as the unit was the primary reason the team scuffled to a 26-25 record during that stretch. Specifically, attention fell on the combination of their advanced ages, slowing bat speeds, and increasing susceptibility to the fastball. While they had turned it on down the stretch in their last two championship years, at some point that would cease to happen, and 2026 certainly seemed as likely a time for it to stop as any.

Well, they mostly turned it around yet again.

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Let’s cut to the chase and update the same monthly comparison chart for the offense from the last three years, and there’s definitely a familiar story repeating.

So yeah, that’s a stark turnaround.

As far as why, a lot of it can be credited to them collectively flipping the switch against fastballs and sinkers. Revisiting another chart of the month-by-month progression of both the usage rate of fastballs and sinkers against the Dodgers and how the Dodgers performed against both those pitches, it was revealing again but in a positive way.

The cat-and-mouse game continued as the season went along, and it at least felt like the Dodgers had started giving teams a reason to stay honest rather than just spamming hard stuff.

At the time, I noted the cascading effect of being able to challenge the Dodgers with fastballs:

Aside from the obvious declining wRC+, their HR/FB% was 16.4 prior to July (2nd) but that has dropped to 11.0% (21st), and the lack of threat and/or damage has had a cascading effect on the offense. Fastballs are generally easier to zone for the pitcher, and thus their 10.5% walk rate (4th) has plummeted all the way down to 7.8% (23rd), which obviously leads to fewer and less explosive scoring chances.

Well, the Dodgers were back up to 13.2% HR/FB in September (9th), this following it dropping to 9.8% HR/FB in July and August combined. Similarly, their BB% was up to 12.2% (1st) in September after it clocked in at 8.4% (21st) in July and August. It all kind of goes hand-in-hand with each other.

I had also hoped that the return of some of their key players and basically the veterans not being horrifically bad would eventually turn things around:

Combine that with a little regression, and perhaps the addition of more regular at-bats from Tommy Edman, Enrique Hernandez, and Will Smith and/or general improvement from Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernandez, and Mookie Betts, and they could resume being one of the better offenses in baseball again. That’d normally feel overly optimistic about a team, but the Dodgers literally did it last year, struggling to a bottom five offense for over a month around the same time and then pulling themselves out of it to be a top five offense in September before going on to win the 2025 World Series.

It took a while, but amazingly that seems to be what happened.

With the worrying exception of Freddie Freeman (and his patella tendinitis), the Dodger vets (and rookies) absolutely annihilated fastballs in September. It’s all the more impressive because they were able to do it without the injured Andy Pages and the notably and noticeably hobbled Shohei Ohtani for the most part.

All of that also seems more sustainable than it did if it were just random surges, mostly because Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker, and Mookie Betts seem to have made notable changes that justify the sudden switch.

While they might not continue to be as hot as they’ve been to close the season, based on what they’ve done previously, there’s also no reason that the trio can’t continue producing at a similarly close level if the changes remain.

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So while the concerns about the offense were valid — things were worse than the last two years and the core of the team was mostly two years older — the bats indeed did it again in September, digging themselves out of their biggest hole yet with notable help from reversing the trend of being attacked relentlessly and bullied by fastballs.

Combined with the playoff rotation settling in and the leverage pen arms emerging, the Dodgers put up an impressive 18-7 record in September for a 117-win pace. Granted, it wasn’t exactly a murderers’ row in terms of competition, but that didn’t stop them from struggling to score even against non-playoff teams in July and August, so it’s still a great sign going into the playoffs.

That said, it goes without saying that there’s no guarantee any of this carries over into October. The pitching there is exponentially better, every plate appearance is high leverage, and it’s an inherently tiny sample mostly at the whims of the baseball gods. However, if you were looking for a reason to believe things have turned, well the Dodgers have undoubtedly gone out and provided it down the stretch as they march towards a potential three-peat.