Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
Today the Dodgers and Phillies will start their National League Division Series in Philadelphia, as the underdog Dodgers look to take down the second seed in the National League. Before covering anything else, Alex wrote a very thorough preview of this NLDS matchup between the two sides that I highly recommend you read, as it details so much more than I could cover in a Game Thread. This paragraph at the end of the preview really summed up the main part of this matchup.
The Brewers took home the top seed in the NL, but this really feels like the matchup between the two best teams in the league. The Dodgers have the offensive firepower to compete against anyone and the rotation should be the best in the playoffs, but it’ll all come down to the bullpen. The bullpen (and sloppy defense) survived against the Reds, but that won’t cut it against a team like the Phillies (or Brewers/Cubs or whoever makes it out of the AL). This feels like it’ll be a classic of a series, and let’s hope it goes the Dodgers way.
Essentially, the offense and rotation both need to continue performing how they have against tougher pitching and a more difficult lineup than that of the Reds, while the bullpen needs to figure out how to get some outs. There is no way around the latter part, as the pen covered all of 4.1 innings in the Wild Card series, while allowing five runs and seven walks. The only clean inning came from Roki Sasaki, who will be thrown directly into the fire and have to be ready to pitch in big spots this series. If the rotation is sharp the pen won’t need to cover a ton of innings, but Dave Roberts will still have very difficult decisions to make when the starters leave the game.
Shohei Ohtani will take the mound tonight in the series opener, but due to the significant time off between games in this series, Tyler Glasnow will be available out of the bullpen while still being on track to start Game 4 should they need him. Meanwhile, Cristopher Sanchez will be on the hill for Philadelphia, looking to shutdown the Dodgers and secure this opening game for the Phillies.
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| 3:38 P.M. | Philadelphia | ||
| P | Ohtani (L) | SS | Turner |
| SS | Betts | DH | Schwarber (L) |
| RF | T. Hernández | 1B | Harper (L) |
| 1B | Freeman (L) | 3B | Bohm |
| 2B | Edman (S) | LF | Marsh (L) |
| 3B | K. Hernández | C | Realmuto |
| LF | Call | RF | Kepler (L) |
| CF | Pages | CF | Bader |
| C | Rortvedt (L) | 2B | Stott (L) |
| P | Ohtani (R) | P | Sánchez (L) |
The Dodgers will run out their best lineup against left-handed pitching, with Kiké Hernández getting the start at third base while Max Muncy is on the bench. It’s a tough call but it’s definitely the right move with Kiké’s postseason success as well as Muncy’s struggles against left-handed pitching. Tommy Edman will be at second base while Alex Call, Andy Pages, and Teoscar Hernández cover the outfield.
The Phillies definitely prefer facing right-handed pitching, as everyone in this lineup aside from Bohm and Kepler have been above-average against them this year. Once again, for a more detailed look at the Phillies’ lineup and offense, check out the NLDS Preview.
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Here’s how Ohtani and Sánchez have fared this season.
Ohtani will be making his postseason debut on the mound tonight, entering the hostile environment in Philadelphia against a tough offense. He faced them during the last series between these two teams, and threw five no-hit innings with just one walk allowed. He’s thrown just 47 innings this season, but his strikeout minus walk rate (K%-BB%) of 28.2% would’ve led baseball among all starters with at least 100 innings pitched. That’s ahead of both Tarik Skubal (27.8%), the likely soon to be back-to-back AL Cy Young, and Zack Wheeler (27.7%), who has consistently been one of the best pitchers in baseball for nearly half a decade. Among 402 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, Ohtani’s 1.90 FIP is second behind just Aroldis Chapman (1.73). That’s in addition to the fact that he currently has a .325 BABIP against him, despite a mark of .268 his last three seasons on the mound. He’s been nothing short of dominant, and would be a very strong contender for the Cy Young award if he had been pitching an entire season.
He finally pitched through the sixth inning his last time out in a scoreless outing against the Diamondbacks, ending his season in excellent form. He’d allowed just one earned run over his final four starts and 19.2 innings, with 27 strikeouts to just four walks with batters hitting just .147 against him. Hopefully he’s sharp tonight, as when he is there’s few that can match him.
For Sanchez, the following excerpt is from the Game Thread prior to when the Dodgers last faced him on September 16. They managed to put up four runs against him as the right-handed batters in the lineup saw him well, although he still managed to get through seven innings and put the Phillies in a position to win that game.
Cristopher Sanchez makes his 30th start of the season. He came in 10th in Cy Young voting last season and is basically better in every way this season. Sanchez has a 2.57 ERA in 182 1/3 innings (already surpassing his innings in 31 starts last season) and has allowed more than three runs in only three of his 29 starts this season. One of those came against the Dodgers in his second start of the season, when he allowed four runs and six hits (two homers). Sanchez has only had two scoreless outings this season, but has also only had six starts allowing more than two runs. He’s completed six innings in 22 of his 29 starts yet has only four starts above 100 pitches. Sanchez has allowed one run in each of his last three starts, but did allow 11 runs over his previous three starts.
Sanchez throws a sinker nearly half the time (45.3 percent). His 58.3 percent ground ball rate is the third-highest among qualified starters and he’s only allowed 10 homers, tied with Paul Skenes and David Peterson (who’s thrown 20 fewer innings than Sanchez) for the fewest allowed. Sanchez hasn’t allowed a homer in his last eight starts dating back to July 28, where naturally he allowed two to the White Sox (one of his three starts allowing more than three runs). Sanchez throws a changeup almost exclusively to righties (38.1 percent usage, 926 of his 1006 changeups have been to righties) and it has a 44.4 percent whiff rate and .196 wOBA allowed. His third pitch is a slider (16.6 percent usage), and despite it being his least-used pitch it’s his most dingered pitch (five of his 10 homers have come off the slider).
Two of his worst starts of the season have come against the Dodgers now, as he allowed four runs over 5.2 innings against them back in early April in addition to the aforementioned start two weeks ago. He finished his season very sharp, as he threw two scoreless outings to close the year, striking out 14 in 12.2 innings with just five hits and one walk allowed. He will almost assuredly come in second in National League Cy Young voting, and he will be incredibly tough to beat at home. The bats will have to show up.
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Ben Rortvedt has been great for the Dodgers, but Will Smith is a key part in the middle of the order and can really do some damage against the left-handed rotation the Phillies have.
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Justin Wrobleski and Edgardo Henriquez are both off of the roster in favor of Clayton Kershaw and Anthony Banda. The team is carrying three catchers and two defensive replacements, so unfortunately people in the bullpen had to get squeezed out for their replacements.
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First pitch is at 3:38 PT on TBS and HBO Max.
