Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
Since coming to Los Angeles after the 2023 season, Shohei Ohtani has done no wrong. He has two MVPs, two World Series rings and recorded the sport’s first-ever 50 home run, 50 stolen base season.
It was a foregone conclusion that his level of dominance would continue in 2026. And it started off well enough. Through his first 68 games (304 plate appearances), Ohtani had a batting line of .305/.426/.553 with a 166 wRC+, as well as a 1.06 ERA and 2.65 FIP as a starting pitcher, while averaging more than 6 innings per start. He had a 16.1 BB% and 22.1 K% and looked well on his way to a third consecutive NL MVP.
The arbitrary endpoint isn’t so arbitrary, as this marked the high point for his OPS (.979) on the season and one day after the first public acknowledgement of his knee injury. Since that time, he’s still been a solid hitter, but nowhere near the level we (and he) have come to expect. Since June 13, he’s hitting .255/.329/.506 with a 120 wRC+ and only made three starts — 4.50 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 6 innings per start.
We learned over the weekend that his planned comeback to the mound hit a snag, thanks to his nagging knee injury. It first popped up in in mid-June, as he missed the June 12 game against the White Sox. It was also announced the weekend before the All-Star Game that Ohtani would not be participating and instead would be getting treatment on his left knee. Initially, it was thought he’d have his knee drained of excess fluid. Instead, he ended up getting a lubricating injection in hopes of minimizing the pain.
The biggest concern — other than his health/well-being, obviously — is his plate discipline. It has taken a drastic turn in the wrong direction.
| Date | O-Sw% | Sw% | OCon% | Z-Con% | Con% | SwStr% |
| T 6/13 | 26.7 | 43.5 | 56.1 | 85.1 | 75.5 | 10.7 |
| S 6/14 | 32.0 | 50.4 | 44.7 | 79.4 | 68.7 | 15.8 |
Key: T 6/13 = Through 6/13; S 6/14 = Since 6/14
While Ohtani has never been a big contact hitter — 71.4 Contact% coming into the 2026 season — but for him to go from what would have been a career-best Contact% to what would be the third-worst of his career in the pan of nearly 300 plate appearances is concerning. What’s even more concerning is his O-Contact% dropping by nearly 12 percentage points, as well as his swinging strike rate jumping by 5 percentage points.
Something that has plagued him and the Dodgers’ offense as a whole has been velocity. Here’s how Ohtani fared against pitches 95 MPH or faster, using the same timeframe as the table above:
Through 6/13
- .394 wOBA
- 21.2 Whiff%
- 96.2 MPH EV
- 64.1 HardHit%
After 6/14
- .219 wOBA
- 29.6 Whiff%
- 94.2 MPH EV
- 52.5 HardHit%
The exit velocity and HardHit% are still really strong, but the wOBA and Whiff% are concerning. And when you look at the EV and HardHit% compared to the results through June 13 and, yeah, that’s a bit concerning.
Opposing teams have started to move away from the middle of the zone with heat to Ohtani to more on the outer-half, as well as elevating out of the strike zone — which correlates with his chase rate increasing since mid-June.
It’s generally a good idea not to throw in the middle of the strike zone to Ohtani, but pitchers have been challenging him almost as much with much better results (244 pitches in the left image, 245 pitches in the right). Until he makes some adjustments, pitchers will continue to attack Ohtani on the outer-half and out of the strike zone up.
Now, Ohtani didn’t suddenly forget how to hit. Superhuman ball players don’t just lose it in the span of a couple months. It can all be traced back to the knee injury (and, possibly, the bicep injury).
While this version of Ohtani is productive — and we’ve seen some flashes of him being pre-June 13 Ohtani — he isn’t what the struggling Dodgers’ offense needs. They need the guy he has been the last two years, but it’s increasingly unlikely he’s going to be that guy while managing the knee injury.
At some point, if/when do the Dodgers force the issue and put Ohtani on the injured list? Because if this is the version of Ohtani we get for the rest of 2026, coupled with no pitching, might not be enough to secure a 3-peat. Yes, the other hitters in the lineup have to do their respective part, but it all starts and ends with Ohtani.
Ohtani is chock-full of pride, as most ballplayers are. It probably wouldn’t be easy to get him to agree to sit down for 15 days. And would 15 days even be enough? Obviously, that’s for the organization and Ohtani to decide. And it’s an even bigger ask with the rest of the bats scuffling as much as they are right now.
Time is running out for the Ohtani to get back on the mound in time for the playoffs. With Blake Snell back and Tyler Glasnow shoving — combined with the trade deadline acquisition of Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — the Dodgers don’t exactly need Ohtani to pitch the rest of the season. Right now, Ohtani isn’t better on the mound than any of those four. If the Dodgers let him focus on hitting the rest of the season, that might be for the best. If they can pair that with 15 or so days of rest, that might be optimal.
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No one in Dodger land wants to see Ohtani hit the injured list, especially when the offense hasn’t been performing well lately. But like everything with the Dodgers, the long game is always in-play. While it’s unknown whether an IL stint will help Ohtani enough to risk losing his production and presence for 15 (or more) days, this version of Ohtani isn’t going to help as much toward a third World Series title if the rest of the offense isn’t playing up to its ability and talent level. Getting Will Smith back should help. If all goes well with Andy Pages‘ wrist, that should help. And there are minor-league reinforcements on the way (more on that tomorrow).
This might be the only time the Dodgers could afford to put Ohtani on the IL before October. They’re tied with the Braves for the second-best record in the NL (i.e., a Wild Card Round bye). This year, a few extra days off might be more attractive than before, but they were the No. 3 seed in the NL last year and, well, we know how that turned out.
With the offense scuffling, the burden of a 3-peat is going to be on Ohtani’s shoulders, as well as the starting pitchers (much like last year). Here’s hoping Ohtani can find a way to manage the pain enough or take a 15-day break so that burden isn’t as much to bear as it already is.
