Dodgers Digest Los Angeles Dodgers Baseball Blog
Coming off a 9-5 loss in the series opener, the Dodgers (30-19) looked like they were on their way to lose their second consecutive series when the Diamondbacks (26-23) took a 3-1 lead in the tenth inning off of Tanner Scott. The Dodgers then proceeded to score three in the bottom of the tenth inning, ending the game via a Max Muncy walk-off sac-fly. Chad recapped the crazy finish last night. Tonight features a rematch from a couple weeks ago in Arizona, with Dustin May squaring off against Corbin Burnes.
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| 7:10 P.M. | Los Angeles | ||
| RF | Carroll (L) | DH | Ohtani (L) |
| 2B | Marte (S) | SS | Betts |
| C | Moreno | 1B | Freeman (L) |
| 1B | Naylor (L) | RF | T. Hernández |
| 3B | Suárez | LF | Pages |
| DH | Smith (L) | 3B | Muncy (L) |
| SS | Perdomo (S) | CF | Edman (S) |
| CF | Thomas (L) | C | Rushing (L) |
| LF | Tawa | 2B | Rojas |
| P | Burnes (R) | P | May (R) |
The Dodgers have the top three batters in the National League in wRC+, with Freddie Freeman (198), Shohei Ohtani (188), and Will Smith (172). Smith will have the night off, but hopefully continues to get adequate rest with an improved backup behind the plate in Dalton Rushing. Rushing has four hits over 11 plate appearances thus far, and will be making his third career start tonight.
Arizona moves Gabriel Moreno up to third in their lineup tonight, and understandably so as he seems to be filling the shoes of Christian Walker as the resident Dodger killer. Moreno has an 87 wRC+, .654 OPS, and no home runs in 116 plate appearances against the other 29 teams in baseball this year, while he has a 1.083 OPS and three home runs in 21 plate appearances against the Dodgers. Please get him out. Everyone else manages to do so.
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Here’s how May and Burnes compare among 117 starters with at least 40 innings pitched.
Here’s what I had to say about Burnes prior to his outing against the Dodgers on May 10.
Corbin Burnes last started on April 30, as he missed a start with right shoulder inflammation. Unlike Dodgers starters, the inflammation only cost Burnes one outing, while the same supposed issue results in missed weeks or longer for Dodger pitchers. Burnes’ first two outings with Arizona weren’t great, allowing four earned runs in each outing, but he’s settled in with a 2.70 ERA over his next four. Even though he’s been better, he’s had a disappointing start to his Diamondbacks career, as his stuff has looked diminished and the underlying data isn’t great either. His velocity is down about a tick and a half across the board, resulting in less chase, less whiffs, more contact, and more walks. His 5.13 FIP, 4.64 SIERA, 4.39 xFIP, 20.0% strikeout rate, and 12.1% walk rate are all career worsts. The ERA has been fine, but Arizona has $210 million committed to him and they need him to pitch accordingly. The Dodgers saw him once last year, where he allowed one run on six hits with four strikeouts across five innings.
Naturally, he then had his best two starts with Arizona by a mile, totaling 13 scoreless innings over those two outings. He went seven innings against the Dodgers, allowing five hits and two walks with five strikeouts, earning the win in a great performance. He followed that up by going six innings against the Rockies, allowing just two hits and three walks with ten strikeouts. He’s now won three consecutive starts, and has allowed just two earned runs over his previous four starts and 24.2 innings. He still hasn’t had the walks and command under control entirely, walking two or more batters in seven of his eight starts thus far, after historically having above-average command and control.
It was a different story for May in his prior start, allowing four runs on six hits and two walks with eight strikeouts against the Angels. He had the aforementioned two walks, but also hit two batters and had issues finding the zone entirely at times. He’s received the loss in three straight outings, although he hasn’t necessarily been terrible in any of them. The 4.43 ERA isn’t great, but he’s gone five or more innings in each of his eight starts. He’s never been known for his health or durability, but that’s what he’s provided thus far. He has 19 strikeouts to just five walks over his last 17.1 innings, so maybe he’s turning the corner in some capacity. The rotation and bullpen could really use him adding a quality start tonight.
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Ohtani is trending very well toward his eventual return to the mound. The organization has echoed that it will be after the All-Star break, but where he’s at currently would likely allow for him to return sooner. We’ll see what they decide to do.
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First pitch is at 7:10 PT on SNLA.
